Is Metaverse the future or a scam?

Meta universe is the development direction of the future Internet.

The full text is 3095 words, and it takes about 6 minutes to read

Special Writer/Zuo Pengfei (Associate Researcher of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences) Editor Zhang Xiaoyuan Proofreader Wu Xingfa

Since August, the popularity of the meta universe concept has continued to rise, and related companies have also continued to move.

The Japanese social gaming giant GREE announced its entry into the meta-universe field, Facebook launched a VR remote collaborative office platform, the Microsoft Inspire conference proposed a corporate meta-universe solution, some domestic technology giants acquired VR companies and preemptive registration of meta-universe related trademarks...

The government departments of some countries also pay great attention to the development of Metaverse. Among them, South Korea is the most active.

In the 2022 budget, the Ministry of Finance of South Korea plans to spend US$20 million on the development of the Metaspace platform. The Ministry of Science and Technology of South Korea plans to invest US$2.2 billion by 2025 to support the development of hyper-connectivity and related technologies.

Then, what is the hottest meta universe? Is it a hype-cutting capital scam? Which industries does it have an impact on?

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What the hell is Yuan Universe

The best way to learn about a new thing is to go back to the source.

At present, the most recognized source of thought about the "meta universe" is the American mathematician and computer expert Professor Ferno Wenqi. In his novel "Real Name and Real Name" published in 1981, he creatively conceived a brain-computer interface. Enter and get the virtual world of sensory experience.

The official proponent of this concept is the American science fiction master Neil Stephenson.

Stephenson sublimated Professor Wen Qi's idea. In 1992, in his famous novel "Avalanche", he proposed the prototype of the meta-universe, a cyberspace parallel to the real world, "put on headphones and eyepieces, find the connected terminal, and then you can pass the virtual clone Enter the virtual space that is simulated by a computer and parallel to the real world".

At present, various research reports and articles have also put forward their own opinions. However, it is not difficult to find that the insights on the meta universe put forward by these two science fiction masters in the last century are still not outdated.

Through the "archaeology" of the meta-universe conception and concept, the meta-universe can be cross-defined from the four aspects of time and space, authenticity, independence, and connectivity.

From the perspective of time and space, the meta-universe is a digital world that is virtual in space and real in time. From the perspective of authenticity, there are digital copies of the real world and creations of virtual worlds in the meta-universe; from the standpoint of independence From the perspective of sex, the meta-universe is a parallel space that is closely connected to the external real world and is highly independent; from the perspective of connectivity, the meta-universe is a sustainable, wide-coverage that includes the network, hardware terminals, and users. Virtual reality system.

Although there is still controversy about "what is metaverse", the basic characteristics of metaverse have been generally recognized by the industry.

These basic characteristics include immersive experience, having an immersive sensory experience; virtualized avatar, having one or more virtual world identities; open creation, having massive digital resources for virtual creation activities; strong social attributes , Has a more diversified and more interactive social model than the real world; stabilized the system, has a safe, stable, and orderly virtual economic social system.

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Is the meta universe a false proposition?

At present, while the meta-universe has set off an upsurge, it has also caused some controversy.

Some people have proposed that the meta universe is a false proposition, and some even think that the meta universe is nothing more than a new scam of cutting leek capital. Among them, Apple's CEO Cook's speech on Metaverse has attracted widespread attention.

Cook said in an interview recently, “Don’t talk about the meta-universe, it’s augmented reality (AR)”.

However, Cook’s remark is not against Metaverse, it just shows that Apple will not use buzzwords indiscriminately.

In fact, it is not just Metaverse, Apple has always adopted a more cautious attitude towards new technologies and new concepts. For example, as a digital technology giant, Apple has always been "cold" on the blockchain.

This is actually closely related to Apple’s pragmatic style of emphasizing practical applications. It is generally not easy to say if the technology is not very mature.

Cook’s words just show Apple’s recognition of the future scenarios of the meta universe, but he believes that such scenarios should be realized through AR technology.

AR is the technology currently being vigorously promoted by Apple. In the past five years, Cook has mentioned in public more than ten times that he is optimistic about AR technology. At the same time, Apple's first AR headset is expected to be mass-produced in the second quarter of next year.

Therefore, it can be considered that AR is one of the main technologies to realize the meta-universe, but it is impossible to realize such a huge economic and social scene simulation only by relying on AR.

As some researchers have pointed out, the two major obstacles facing meta-universe applications are terminals and networks. Although interactive technologies such as VR and AR have been developed for many years, there is still a distance from fully realizing the immersive experience; while in the process of meta-universe applications, The real-time synchronization of information from the physical world to the information space has a huge amount of transmission, and the current network infrastructure cannot meet the demand.

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Six industries affected

New technologies often mean new industrial patterns.

Recently, the concept stocks related to Metaverse have soared almost across the board. Many industry research companies have also released forecast reports on the future market size of Metaverse.

Bloomberg industry research report predicts that the market size of Meta Universe will reach 800 billion US dollars in 2024, and PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that Meta Universe will reach 1.5 trillion US dollars in 2030.

Good market prospects have naturally become a hot area for industrial investment.

So which industries will be affected and driven by it?

First of all, it is the direct technology industry that affects the realization of the meta-universe application scenarios.

The realization of the meta-universe scene is a complex systematic project that requires the comprehensive support of a series of software and hardware technology clusters, such as XR (extended reality), NFT (non-homogeneous tokens), AI, 3D, voice and gesture recognition, space Mapping, digital twins, and other directly related technologies. The maturity of these technologies directly determines the progress of the meta-universe scene.

Secondly, the underlying technology industry that supports the operation of the meta-universe scene.

In the meta-universe scenario, large-scale users will be online at the same time and interact in real time with low latency, which requires the deep integration of a large number of underlying technologies, such as blockchain, cloud computing, big data, future networks, semiconductors and other underlying technologies , And related infrastructure technologies, these technologies directly determine whether the meta-universe system can operate in a steady state.

Third, the virtual and real connection technology industry.

That is, related technologies that connect the virtual world and the real world, such as spatial computing, edge computing, wearable devices, embedded technologies, brain-computer interfaces, micro-sensors, and other technologies that enhance the interactive perception of the virtual and real world. These technologies affect users’ The immersive experience of the meta-universe scene.

Fourth, the experience industry under different application scenarios of Metaverse.

Matthew Bauer, a senior research expert of Metaverse, puts forward that “Metaverse is a concept at the same level as the mobile Internet.” Just as there are different subdivisions such as shopping, entertainment, social interaction, learning, and office on the Internet, Metaverse will Covering and surpassing various current Internet application scenarios, bringing experience upgrades in these fields.

Fifth, the creative industry under visual simulation. The development of Meta Universe is based on traditional cyberspace, bringing comprehensive upgrades in vision, content, services, and processes, and will form a new type of creator economy, such as animation design, audiovisual products, game production, image design, etc.

▲On September 3, 2021, exhibitors are experiencing VR games. Beijing News reporter Wang Fei

Sixth, assist the payment, security and other auxiliary industries of the healthy and orderly operation of the Metaverse system. If the virtual economic social system formed by Metaverse wants to operate in an orderly manner, it must be based on a series of widely recognized standards and protocols to promote the great connection of different ecosystems of Metaverse, and this is inseparable from payment, security, and credit. , Certification and other technical and business model support.

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The "dewdrop" that condenses good technology

Looking back, in 1946, no matter how imaginative people stood in front of the behemoth "ENIAC" (Electronic Digital Integral Computer), they couldn't imagine how quickly, drastically, and fundamentally computers would change human production and life.

Similarly, standing in the present and looking at the future, it is also difficult for people to predict what impact the meta-universe will bring.

But what is certain is that Metaverse is the future development direction of the Internet.

Metauniverse has already shown signs of application in different fields at the moment, and the future can be expected. With the combined force of technological upgrades and demand upgrades, the expected metauniverse application scenarios can be realized in the future.

From the perspective of the development stage, the current meta-universe industry is still in its embryonic stage as a whole, and technical limitations are currently the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of meta-universe.

Directly related technologies such as speech and gesture recognition, spatial mapping, digital twins, etc. are not yet mature enough, which leads to the fact that the application of the meta-universe is still far away. It may take 10 or 20 years for vision and experience technology to mature.

The maturity of the meta-universe industry needs a series of basic research to support. Therefore, in the face of the current meta-universe boom, people should maintain a rational cognition and beware of excessive speculation in the name of technology and concepts, and in particular, be wary of the scam of cutting leek in the capital market. Relevant enterprises in the industry chain should be encouraged to strengthen basic research, enhance technological innovation capabilities, and steadily improve technological maturity.

There is a sentence in "Avalanche", "A trivial matter like a wisp of water vapor, but she can condense the dew of facts from it."

At present, in the face of the beautiful visions of "water vapor" brought by the meta-universe, what people need to do is to condense the "dewdrops" of good technology.